Tied to the mast
…but orange now and black

Less abstract question…

According to the Beeb:

Several people died in a protest on Monday and Mr Mousavi urged followers not to take part in a rally planned for Tuesday, amid fears of new violence.

I’m not sure the degree to which the protests are actually about Mousavi at this point. Yes, he’s been an effective rallying point, but he’s no revolutionary counter-establishment figure.

So what’s going to happen today?

If the protesters heed Mousavi it will be very telling. I also think it will be the effective closing of the door. The alternative is much more blood shed this afternoon. A sad fact, but that’s the path to change in Iran at this point.  The blood of people who will be interpreted by the protesters as martyrs is a rallying point in itself.

The regime seems intent on playing brinksmanship with the opposition, organizing and busing in participants for a pro-regime rally that was intended to start 2 hours before Mousavi’s. If the regime retains power, it’s going to be much more careful about any elections in the future.

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