Tied to the mast
…but orange now and black

Is the dust settling on a new Iranian dictatorship?

From the NYT:

Morteza Tamadon, the governor general of Tehran, said Monday that the planned rally by Mr. Moussavi’s supporters had been declared illegal because the Interior Ministry denied permission to hold it, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

Later, a Web site and news reports said Mr. Moussavi had postponed the rally and urged his followers to demonstrate legally and peacefully.

The impact of the postponement remained uncertain with some people on the streets saying they might gather anyhow to protest the re-election of Mr. Ahmadinejad in what his opponents call a stolen election. The rally was supposed to begin at Tehran University and reach Azadi Square several miles away.

From the Telegraph:

Mr Mousavi’s wife and co-campaigner, Zahra Ranavard, was reported as warning that riot squads would be equipped with live ammunition, raising the prospect of serious bloodshed.

Iran’s Interior Ministry said he Mousavi would be responsible for any consequences if he went ahead with the protest.

Khameini additionally has asked for a Guardian Council review of the election results, but who knows what that’s worth. I have a feeling that they’re committed enough to the lie that they’re going to stick with it, and just try to add that one more seal of legitimation.

If the result announced is that the election was fair—as I predict the Guardian Council will say—I don’t know that threats of live ammunititon will be enough to keep those who know what a farse it was from the streets. It risks fully delegitimating the office of both Khameini and the institution of the Guardian Counscil.

If that is the case, this is the calm before the real storm.

~

UPDATE: Apparently the threat of live ammunition wasn’t enough even now. See my next post here.

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