Tied to the mast
…but orange now and black

Change is inevitable… but what kind of change is not

From Ramin Ahmadi writing at Forbes:

There are at least two possible outcomes for the current crisis. If the Ahmadinejad’s coup is successful, we will witness another post-1968 Prague spring, crushing the reform movement and including a military attempt at “normalizing” society. Mousavi will be forced to appear on television and play the role of an Iranian Dubcek, expressing regrets and calling on people to stop resisting the military regime.

If this coup fails, on the other hand, Tehran may experience the Prague spring of 1989, and the country will be wide open to the possibility of substantial reforms and liberalization, well beyond what was seen in the Khatami era. In either case, the Islamic Republic we have known for the last three decades is gone. That strange, fragile and contradictory 1979 newborn, a hybrid of clerical theocracy and Western-style republic, has long been dead. Some have argued it was a stillbirth. Others have insisted on its potential. Either way we evaluate the regime, it’s clear today that only brutal military force can sustain the theocratic element.

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